hmmm…
A recent post on Richard’s blog got me looking again at the McMillan Calculator which says based on two recent races (a 5.4 mile race and a 1/2 marathon) I’m capable of running a 3:33 marathon. The prediction makes my head swirl.
The goal I’ve set is to run a 3:36 but there is a lot of doubt in my mind about even achieving that goal. In fact, I set the goal purposefully high so I wouldn’t underachieve. I based this bit of goal setting on Richard’s very poignant remark, “You may not be able to live up to your expectations, but you will almost always live down to them.”.
On the other hand, I had doubts about running a 1:40:59 half-marathon which I did very strongly just last week.
Am I getting faster? Race results seem to be saying I am but for some reason there is this nagging doubt that although I am faster up to the half marathon distance, the speed improvement may not translate to being a faster marathon runner? After completing five marathons, I know there is a huge difference between running a 1/2 versus a full marathon.
Is my mind imagining limitations that are not there? This, I think, is the biggest question for me. Chris has suggested some reading in this area and Richard is definitely great at thinking positively in terms of one’s potential.
Aaron recently asked me some questions about my race plan for Victoria. Frankly, I’m struggling. Should I go out with a 3:33 pace or my goal pace of 3:36? I could try to answer the question by first answering another question: What’s the slowest time I’d be happy with? My answer is that I’d settle for a 3:39 and would be unhappy finishing slower than my last marathon (3:42). After all, we all want to improve right?
So, it looks like I’m left with one final question: Will running at a 3:33 pace burn me out and prevent me from getting a 3:36 or even a 3:39?
I’m beginning to think it comes down to deciding whether I’m going to “go for it” and risk failure, or play it safer in order to “guarantee” a slower PR. Saying what I just said reminds me of another fact: There are no guarantees when you run 26.2 miles!
One last piece of information: The difference between attempting a 3:33 and a 3:36 is 5 seconds per kilometer. Is that a big deal? It might not seem to be but stretch it out over 26.2 miles and I think it might be!
Decisions, decisions…
Advice? Do I just get some balls and run the pace McMillan says I can run?
